Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
